Share Tweet. England, who was not involved in this study, confirms that this is important work. Lauren Fuge Lauren Fuge is a science journalist at Cosmos. More from:. Lauren Fuge. The authors said that following those year lags, abrupt warming or cooling took place over just a few decades or less. Muschitiello's research is the first to calculate how quickly a change in the AMOC begets a shift in global climate.
But he doesn't think today's melting ice is enough to trigger the dramatic AMOC slowdown that the world saw 13, years ago. According to Muschitiello, there are "reconstructions that suggest that the AMOC stopped entirely in the past, and that these major distortions of the AMOC led to the coldest events ever recorded.
But such an occurrence would require a significant amount of melt water. The past distortions Muschitiello is referring to happened after large swarms of icebergs broke off glaciers and floated into the north Atlantic ocean. When the iceberg armadas melted, that added an excess of fresh water into the ocean, wreaking havoc on the AMOC. But this kind of influx of fresh water was several orders of magnitude higher than today's melting rates. A government report suggested in that while the AMOC is clearly weakening, there's no evidence that it would abruptly collapse in the 21st century.
That report noted, however, that if the AMOC did stop, it would cause almost 3 feet of additional sea-level rise. A study found that if the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere instantaneously doubled from the level, the AMOC could collapse in years.
But it's unlikely that greenhouse-gas emissions would increase that dramatically. But the weakening that's already underway is still likely to cause changes in our global climate.
There will be surplus of heat in subtropics, which is important for hurricane formation. When subtropical waters are warmer, that contributes to more frequent and intense hurricanes in the Atlantic, since warm air holds more water vapor — and that additional moisture provides fuel for hurricanes. And parts of central and west Africa would experience drought conditions, since those areas also benefit from the AMOC's circulation.
Muschitiello said that even though the "The Day After Tomorrow" shows an exaggerated scenario, there have been historical tipping points after which the climate system reacted quite swiftly.
Robert D. He served in the U. Navy for more than 30 years and continues to work with the Office of Naval Research. A pioneer in the development of deep-sea submersibles and remotely operated vehicle systems, he has taken part in more than deep-sea expeditions. In , he discovered the RMS Titanic , and has succeeded in tracking down numerous other significant shipwrecks, including the German battleship Bismarck , the lost fleet of Guadalcanal, the U.
He is known for his research on the ecology and evolution of fauna in deep-ocean hydrothermal, seamount, canyon and deep trench systems. He has conducted more than 60 scientific expeditions in the Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Sunita L. Her research explores how the larvae of seafloor invertebrates such as anemones and sea stars disperse to isolated, island-like habitats, how larvae settle and colonize new sites, and how their communities change over time.
Kirstin also has ongoing projects in the Arctic and on coral reefs in Palau. Her work frequently takes her underwater using remotely operated vehicles and SCUBA and carries her to the far corners of the world. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use cookies to analyze site usage and improve user experience.
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